Everything Turn, Turn, Turn (overs)

Well, consider me 0 for 1 as a Blazer Blogger thus far. I thought that rebounding was the crucial element of last night's game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and I was wrong. The Blazers actually grabbed more rebounds than the Thunder did last night and control of the glass was not the deciding factor in last night's contest. No, what killed Portland last night was something quite uncharacteristic for this Portland team and their system: turnovers.

If you watched the game last night, it was plain to see that the Blazers inability to take care of the basketball killed them repeatedly (a few times I thought I was watching the Celtics play, yeesh). Currently 26th in the NBA in turnovers per game, the Blazers coughed up the rock 24 times, leading to 30 points for Kevin Durant & co. That's the ballgame right there, folks, and you can thank some surprisingly stifling defense from the Thunder for making that happen. OKC is a long and athletic squad, and they swarmed the Blazers mercilessly and took Portland right out of their game from the get go. Andre Miller and others were routinely met by two, three and sometimes even four bodies when they got into the paint, and the Thunder did a great job of cutting off passing lanes and running shooters off of shots on the perimeter when the Blazers were able to kick the ball out to the perimeter.

Now, Portland missed plenty of looks that might normally go down, but explaining the loss that way would be selling the defensive effort of the Thunder and the progress they've made this year woefully short. I am a firm believer that basketball is a game of rhythm, and taking a team out of that rhythm makes good shooters miss open shots after long enough. That's what happened to Portland last night, and on the other side of things, the Blazers just didn't have an answer for the length, athleticism and overall game of Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and the rest of the Thunder.

Not that I'm in the business of letting the Blazers off the hook, but they just got outplayed by a healthier team that right now is more talented than Portland and has been giving even the top squads in the NBA boatloads of problems this year. The Thunder are vastly improved on both ends of the floor and seem poised to make some noise down the stretch of this season. And although Kevin Durant was fantastic again (33/11), the Thunder are more than just him, and they proved it last night. Jeff Green did the little things (including mediating a shouting match between Durant and Russell Westbrook in the second half), played great defense on LaMarcus Aldridge (he only got 10 shots all night and had 4 turnovers), and rookie James Harden hit some big shots just as Portland was attempting to close the gap in the second half.

Looking ahead to tonight's game against Phoenix, the Blazers should have an easier time running their offense, which can hopefully translate to more makes and a Portland victory. Phoenix plays no defense at all and don't rebound particularly well, so they don't seem well equipped to exploit Portland. That doesn't mean they aren't a threat, the Suns have been playing fantastically and have as much offensive firepower as anyone in the Association. Still, I like the Blazers to go get a win tonight, partially because of a few match-ups but also because they got embarrassed on their home floor last night and most NBA teams respond well after a loss like that.

The caveats, however, are as follows. First, this is the second of a back-to-back for the Blazers, and they had to travel to Phoenix after the game last night, so fatigue could be an issue against a team that runs and guns as much as the Suns do. Also, life will be difficult for Portland if Martell Webster can't go at all or is limited in his ability to impact the game. His nasty fall last night visibly affected his game on both ends and the Blazers desperately need him to have a chance at success tonight and for the rest of the season. Also, there is potential for a Channing Frye revenge game, as the Suns new sixth man may be keyed up and determined to show Portland what he can do in a system that isn't as restrictive as Nate McMillan's is.

on the flip side, I actually like the match-ups for Portland a lot more in this game than I did against the Thunder. Andre Miller should be able to post up Steve Nash all night long and exploit his defensive deficiencies easily (not possible against the physical specimen that isRussell Westbrook), and if they take Nash off of Miller Captain Canada will have to try and contain Jerryd Bayless, who shreds the NBA's quickest perimeter defenders off the dribble on a nightly basis. And while we're on the subject of Bayless, I like the potential of him against Leandro Barbosa. On the interior, LaMarcus Aldridge should have an easier go of things against Channing Frye and Amar'e Stoudemire, both of whom have never been accused of playing a lick of D in their respective NBA careers.

Still, this game is a toss up at best and the Blazers, as they have had to do all season, will have to find a way to win and compensate for the talent and health differential. If shots fall for Portland tonight, they should win (there's my push for the John Madden Memorial Captain Obvious Award), otherwise things could get ugly once again. Win or lose, the All-Star break is coming and on the other side of it hopefully lies a healthy Brandon Roy, so let's try and hang on one more time and gut out another impressive win.

Preparing for a Thunderstorm

When two divisional rivals square off in the NBA, oftentimes the best way to find the "key to victory" is to rely on data from previous contests and learn from those match-ups.  Tonight's game between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Artists Formerly Known as the Seattle Super Sonics, however, is the exception to the rule.  

Way back on November 1st when the Blazers beat the Thunder 83-74 in a game that can only be described as Moe Sizlack ugly these were two completely different teams.  With the exception of Nicolas Batum, Travis Outlaw and Jeff Pendergraph, Portland was at full strength and featured a starting five of Steve Blake, Brandon Roy, Martell Webster, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden.  These days, Portland's M.A.S.H. unit features only two of those starters (Aldridge and Webster) as the banged up Blazers seek to deal with the harsh and unforgiving rigors of an 82-game NBA schedule.  A significant size, strength and rebounding edge (that helped Portland win the first brutal slugfest) has vanished into thin air, as Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla have been replaced in the middle by Juwan Howard, Dante Cunningham and Jeff Pendergraph, none of whom stand much taller than 6'8".  And if that weren't enough, the Blazers crunch time scoring and best player are in street clothes until after the All-Star break.

Oklahoma City, on the other hand, has largely the same roster they did on November 1st, however they are playing like a completely different team these days.  Particularly, Kevin Durant has been scorching hot lately and is just one tenth of a point behind LeBron James for the league lead in scoring.  Durant had an incredible January, averaging over 32 points and 8 rebounds per contest and scoring with a ruthless efficiency reminiscent of the Spanish Inquisition.  I'm actually surprised Durant hasn't burned a hole through the parquet floor lately, he's shooting almost 52% from the field over all, 53% from 3-point distance and almost 90% from the line.  In short, don't expect him to put up a 3-20 stink bomb this time around. 

Admittedly, things seem pretty grim for Portland going into this game.  The Blazers are missing their best player and go-to scorer, while OKC's best player is turning in the best stretch of basketball in his entire life.  If there is a silver lining to this gloomy cloud, it's that the Thunder don't have an exceptional amount of size to punish the Blazers with on the interior.  Their tallest player is Nenad Kristic, who tends to favor a mid-range jumper over doing the dirty work down on the block.  Beyond Kristic, the Thunder's next tallest player may actually be Durant (though Nick Collison is their reserve big man), so it's fair to say that they don't exactly have a dominating low post presence to pound the rock inside and punish the Blazers for being small, so it would seem that the Thunder are ill-equipped to exploit one of the Blazers' biggest weaknesses.  

Appearances can be deceiving, however, so let's take a closer look.  Despite not having incredible size on their roster, the Thunder have good length and athleticism and rebound much better than their roster measurements suggest.  In fact, the Thunder are fifth in the NBA in total rebounds grabbed per game, while Portland ranks a dismal 27th (though I think you can safely blame their poor rebounding on the lack of centers on the roster).  Why does this matter?  Because the best way to beat the Blazers is to control the glass and rebound the hell out of the basketball.  This is THE way to beat Portland on any given night, and I am actually shocked that more teams aren't exploiting this weakness.

If the Thunder can control the backboards on both ends of the floor, they can do two things.  First of all, by controlling the defensive glass they can limit Portland to one shot and put pressure on the Blazers to make the best of their looks and generally limit opportunities to score.  Secondly, by hitting the offensive glass the Thunder can generate more possessions for themselves and get better scoring opportunities out of those possessions.  The larger the disparity in rebounds on both ends (and therefore the larger disparity in possessions) is, the more likely the Thunder are to win the game tonight. 

Now I don't know if there's an advanced stat out there that can tell us if a team is more likely to score after an offensive rebound, but to my eyes offensive rebounds generate points and create good looks for your team.  Think about it this way: not only does an offensive rebound give your team another possession, but it often gives your team an opportunity to score right at the rim (ever wonder how Dwight Howard gets his points with horrendous footwork and hands made of bricks?).  And even if an offensive rebound doesn't generate a lay-up attempt, it can also lead to an open perimeter shot for a teammate, as an opponent may have already leaked out for a transition opportunity or may be out of guarding position after trying to grab the rebounds themselves.  This happens all the time, a great example is the first possession for the Celtics from game 2 of the 2008 Finals, where Kendrick Perkins grabbed a miss and kicked it out to Paul Pierce for a wide open 3-pointer.  Perhaps this is confirmation bias on my part, but the simple fact remains that getting offensive rebounds gets you more shots than your opponent (this can't be a bad thing).

So controlling the glass against a team with no centers, a few undersized forwards (and a tall guy who should be a beast but only grabs 2 rebounds a quarter), and a glut of undersized guards, right?  Wrong, at least a little.  The Blazers have still managed to win lots of games by rebounding as a team and working extra hard.  Guys like Andre Miller, who is usually good for at least one crucial offensive rebound and follow up basket a game, or Martell Webster, who isn't known as a rebounder but is dedicating himself to that area of the game have been helping out.  In fact, the Blazers give up fewer rebounds than anyone in the NBA.  And while you might think that the Blazers give up fewer rebounds because their opponents shoot a decently good percentage from the field (the Blazers are 19th in the NBA in opponents' FG%), dig a little deeper and you realize that Portland is 6th in the Association in rebound differential, so I think it's still safe to say that the Blazers do better than they should on the glass. 

Still, the Blazers do get hammered underneath from time to time and many of the games they've lost this year have been because of that.  Fortunately, OKC's match-ups aren't as unfavorable as they might seem.  Durant is long, sure, but at least Nicolas Batum is back to contest him for stretches of the game.  If Portland plays hard tonight, they can win this game and probably should.  The Thunder are great this year and have been playing really well, but Portland's system gives them a shot every night.  I'm excited to see Durant & co. in action this year, check back after the game for more analysis.