Danger Zone

Yeesh. That's about all I can say after last night's disappointing loss to the Phoenix Suns in a game that the Blazers could have and should have won. The tempo was slow and the game was ugly. Neither team effectively moved the ball or scored efficiently, which was exactly what Portland wanted, but the Blazers still found a way to lose and leave everyone at home in the city of roses with an awful taste in their mouths. Roy struggled, Aldridge disappeared and Andre Miller faded down the stretch in a game that Portland should have won by at least twenty points. How did this happen?

Strangely enough, it was the Phoenix defense that took the Blazers out of their game and allowed the Suns to steal the victory. Traps on pick & roll, sharp (by Phoenix standards anyhow) defensive rotations and physical play (again, by Phoenix standards) stood out as the Blazers looked lost and confused and could do little more than hoist contested jumpers all night long. The Blazers, on the other hand, had problems on defense with the Suns and left three-point shooters open down the stretch, which allowed the likes of Jared Dudley to get hot and spark his team to victory in an ever tightening playoff positioning battle.

What stood out the most about last night's contest was the fact that Phoenix absolutely KILLED the Blazers down the stretch with zone defense, cutting off all passing lanes and making it difficult for the Blazers to get the ball inside and create easy shots. Zone defense is a nice wrinkle that is underused in my opinion by most of the NBA, however Portland uses more zone than most so it was semi-bizarre to see them struggle so mightily against the Suns' zone defense during the fourth quarter last night. This was especially puzzling considering the Blazers have two excellent dribble penetrators in Brandon Roy and Andre Miller, both of whom can find creases in any defense and get a shot for themselves or kick to the perimeter to a teammate. Perhaps the Blazers were caught off guard, but the bottom line is that they had absolutely no answer for the zone and wilted down the stretch of a game that they lead for much of the evening.

The Blazers' shooting was absolutely abysmal, especially from behind the arc where Portland finished 2-17. The bench gave the Blazers almost nothing, and off nights from both Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge condemned Portland to defeat as inefficient and sloppy play (despite having only 4 turnovers) dominated the evening. Even with the off nights from the stars, Portland played Phoenix to a draw or narrowly won in nearly every crucial category except one: points on the scoreboard.

If there was a bright spot for the Blazers, it was Marcus Camby. Though he is still struggling on offense and going through the usual growing pains associated with learning a new system, Camby was a force on defense and on the glass last night. Although he scored only 7 points (albeit on 3-6 shooting), Camby grabbed 16 rebounds (ten in the first quarter) and blocked five shots while playing effective man to man defense and killer help defense all night long. Though he was credited with five blocks, the former Minuteman altered many more, and you could almost see the Phoenix players hesitate and think twice before trying to lay the ball in any time Camby was in the same postal code. This guy can flat out defend, and the Blazers will need that from him down the stretch of the regular season and into the Playoffs.

The other semi-positive from this game was Nicolas Batum, who despite submitting a muted stat line did all the little things we expect of him and helped the Blazers stand tough before fouling out in the fourth quarter. His jumpers weren't falling at a normal rate, but that didn't stop him from competing hard on both ends and staying focused on the game and winning. Not that I buy into +/- too much, but Batum was the only Blazer with a net positive result at +7 for the game. If only more players were like this kid, then the NBA would be so much better and more competitive from top to bottom.

Ultimately, this game is still just 1 of 82, and I don't actually like the idea of moving out of the 8 spot in the West so the loss doesn't hurt that bad. The Blazers will make the Playoffs, and if they do I'd much rather they meet a team like the Lakers in round 1 than anyone else. Portland already hates L.A. and plays them very well (especially at the Rose Garden), and a series like that is rife for the "nobody believes in us" element that could spell an upset. If the Blazers move up a seed or two, they'll likely meet Dallas, Utah or worst of all, Denver, in round one which would be way worse. We'll get into Playoff match-ups in the coming weeks, but just know that we want L.A. and something tells me they don't want us.

What I'd like to see more of from Portland down the stretch is crisp execution on offense with a goal of integrating Camby and maximizing his talents to the fullest. Camby can initiate offense from the high post and is the type of player who won't try to do too much, he just needs more time in practice and games to learn the system and his new teammates (and vice versa). I'm gearing up for an interesting and exciting playoff ride, so stay tuned for more pearls of wisdom.

Getting Set For the Nets

There's nothing like a game against a historically awful team to help wash the awful taste of a fourth quarter collapse against a divisional opponent away, so let's all take a moment and praise the scheduling gods for giving Portland an easy match-up against the hapless New Jersey Nets tonight (amen). The Nets are currently 5-51, which looks bad enough on its own and even worse when you consider that means that they've won less than 10% of their games this season (in case you were wondering, the 1972-73 76ers set the current mark for futility at 9-73, which comes out to an 11% winning percentage). So in theory this should be an easy win for a Portland team that is getting as healthy as they will get his year.

But this is still the NBA, and even a historically bad team like the Nets can surprise you at any time. They may not have superstar players, but New Jersey does have some talented players and could conceivably upset Portland tonight. I don't think it will happen, especially after a humbling and embarrassing home loss to the Jazz on Sunday night. The Blazers should be very focused and ready to play, which doesn't bode well for New Jersey as their best hope for victory on a nightly basis is to be underestimated and overlooked by the opposition.

As far as match-ups go, the Blazers should do very well across the board, especially up front. Offensively, LaMarcus Aldridge should have his way against the likes of Yi Jianlian either facing up or in the low post. Yi isn't exactly a physical beast and probably won't be willing to bang bodies with LA (which is only the best way to take Aldridge out of a game), so look for LaMarcus to have a big game tonight. I'm not sure how New jersey will counter that match-up, and on the other side of the ball Aldridge's foot speed and length should help contain the Chinese forward on the perimeter.

But as the Dude might say, "the Chinaman is not the issue here!" (Asian American is the preferred nomenclature) The match-up I'm really interested to see is Brook Lopez against Marcus Camby. If there has been a silver lining to this season for the Nets, it's Lopez, who has played strong, consistent basketball all year despite the fact that he's toiling for a team who's only motivation to win is to avoid being crowned the all time worst team in NBA history. Lopez is physically gifted, skilled and has a soft touch that extends out to 18 feet and beyond, making him a tough assignment for most of the NBA on a nightly basis. Marcus Camby has enough length to counter Lopez and is mobile enough to stick with him on the perimeter, but Camby won't be able to help out on defense (his biggest strength) and will be drawn away from the hoop for much of the night. The other Blazers will have to do a good job of containing dribble penetration tonight to keep Marcus in position and to prevent the Nets from creating open looks on the perimeter.

In the backcourt, it will be interesting to see how Andre Miller and Devin Harris play against each other, as they represent opposite ends of the NBA's spectrum of point guard types. Miller is crafty, methodical and physical, while Harris is a lanky speedster that thrives on quickness, dribble penetration and getting into the teeth of the defense. I don't know how well Miller will do against a speedy guard like Devin Harris, nor am I optimistic about Harris' ability to guard Andre in the post. I'll give Andre the edge here because Devin Harris hasn't been great this year while Miller has been everything Portland could have hoped for and then some. The Blazers will probably put Bayless on Harris for stretches to match his athleticism, though I'm not sure that Portland will even need to given the way Harris and the Nets have played this year.

Portland should win this game easily, although it is the first of a back to back which can be a trap if the players start thinking about the next game before this one is over so we'll just have to wait and see. If Brandon Roy is feeling good tonight, I doubt there will be another collapse like the one we saw on Sunday against Utah. it will be important for the Blazers to get on the Nets early and then keep the pressure on in the hopes that they will fold and resign themselves to a fate that seems inevitable. If Portland plays some defense (they almost always do), takes care of the ball and controls the glass (shouldn't be a problem), then they'll be in great shape to start this road trip off on the right foot.