Getting Set For the Nets

There's nothing like a game against a historically awful team to help wash the awful taste of a fourth quarter collapse against a divisional opponent away, so let's all take a moment and praise the scheduling gods for giving Portland an easy match-up against the hapless New Jersey Nets tonight (amen). The Nets are currently 5-51, which looks bad enough on its own and even worse when you consider that means that they've won less than 10% of their games this season (in case you were wondering, the 1972-73 76ers set the current mark for futility at 9-73, which comes out to an 11% winning percentage). So in theory this should be an easy win for a Portland team that is getting as healthy as they will get his year.

But this is still the NBA, and even a historically bad team like the Nets can surprise you at any time. They may not have superstar players, but New Jersey does have some talented players and could conceivably upset Portland tonight. I don't think it will happen, especially after a humbling and embarrassing home loss to the Jazz on Sunday night. The Blazers should be very focused and ready to play, which doesn't bode well for New Jersey as their best hope for victory on a nightly basis is to be underestimated and overlooked by the opposition.

As far as match-ups go, the Blazers should do very well across the board, especially up front. Offensively, LaMarcus Aldridge should have his way against the likes of Yi Jianlian either facing up or in the low post. Yi isn't exactly a physical beast and probably won't be willing to bang bodies with LA (which is only the best way to take Aldridge out of a game), so look for LaMarcus to have a big game tonight. I'm not sure how New jersey will counter that match-up, and on the other side of the ball Aldridge's foot speed and length should help contain the Chinese forward on the perimeter.

But as the Dude might say, "the Chinaman is not the issue here!" (Asian American is the preferred nomenclature) The match-up I'm really interested to see is Brook Lopez against Marcus Camby. If there has been a silver lining to this season for the Nets, it's Lopez, who has played strong, consistent basketball all year despite the fact that he's toiling for a team who's only motivation to win is to avoid being crowned the all time worst team in NBA history. Lopez is physically gifted, skilled and has a soft touch that extends out to 18 feet and beyond, making him a tough assignment for most of the NBA on a nightly basis. Marcus Camby has enough length to counter Lopez and is mobile enough to stick with him on the perimeter, but Camby won't be able to help out on defense (his biggest strength) and will be drawn away from the hoop for much of the night. The other Blazers will have to do a good job of containing dribble penetration tonight to keep Marcus in position and to prevent the Nets from creating open looks on the perimeter.

In the backcourt, it will be interesting to see how Andre Miller and Devin Harris play against each other, as they represent opposite ends of the NBA's spectrum of point guard types. Miller is crafty, methodical and physical, while Harris is a lanky speedster that thrives on quickness, dribble penetration and getting into the teeth of the defense. I don't know how well Miller will do against a speedy guard like Devin Harris, nor am I optimistic about Harris' ability to guard Andre in the post. I'll give Andre the edge here because Devin Harris hasn't been great this year while Miller has been everything Portland could have hoped for and then some. The Blazers will probably put Bayless on Harris for stretches to match his athleticism, though I'm not sure that Portland will even need to given the way Harris and the Nets have played this year.

Portland should win this game easily, although it is the first of a back to back which can be a trap if the players start thinking about the next game before this one is over so we'll just have to wait and see. If Brandon Roy is feeling good tonight, I doubt there will be another collapse like the one we saw on Sunday against Utah. it will be important for the Blazers to get on the Nets early and then keep the pressure on in the hopes that they will fold and resign themselves to a fate that seems inevitable. If Portland plays some defense (they almost always do), takes care of the ball and controls the glass (shouldn't be a problem), then they'll be in great shape to start this road trip off on the right foot.

Smothered

Oh boy oh boy oh boy oh boy, nothing gets me going quite like being able to go see my beloved Celtics take on the pesky Portland Trail Blazers in an environment as electric and hostile as the Rose Garden on a friday night. Tyler's mom deserves a big hat tip for scoring the Fox and myself some sweet tickets to the game, and the Celtics deserve an equally big hat tip for coming out and playing with effort, intensity and strong resolve just one night after slugging it out with the Lakers in Los Angeles.

Speaking of the Lakers, I have to get this off my chest before indulging y'all in any more basketball commentary. The two guys sitting next to Tyler and myself at the Rose Garden were Laker fans, why they were at this game is beyond me (though they both seemed intent on scoring with some fat chicks later so maybe that was their motivation). I mean, you're coming to a game featuring two of your most hated rivals and stepping into an arena full of people that think you're assholes and probably wouldn't go R. Kelly on you if you were on fire, so what gives? These guys looked like they just got rejected from some horrible reality show (the one sitting next to me was wearing a muscle shirt, while his buddy had on a ridiculous looking white hat and some kind of designer shirt and jeans), like the West Coast version of "Jersey Shore" or something.

They'd clearly been pre-gaming somewhere, and when they came up to their seats each had two cocktails with them (looked like cosmos, which is very ironic considering how macho and homophobic they were trying to be once the game got underway). They then proceeded to get plowed, talk shit, sexually harass me and everyone else within arms reach and then disappeared for the half of the game. Even when they were in their seats they weren't paying attention, clearly they spent a ton of money on their seats and their drinks and everything else just to do it and be seen and make sure that everyone else knows how loaded they are (and we did notice that they were loaded, but not in the way they were hoping for I'm guessing). They didn't come to watch the game, and they didn't care about the score or the level of play or anything else. In short, this is why I hate LA and the Lakers. Sure, Kobe Bryant is an insufferable prick and the fact that their third string center has a freaking publicist is grating, but the Laker fans are the primary reason that I loathe anything wearing purple and gold. These two guys personified everything that is wrong with being a sports fan and were so distracting and offensive that they took away from the game experience for us (well at least for me, Tyler was fortunate enough to have me between him and them and was flanked on his other side by some hipster girl who only wanted to dance to the arena music). Ugh, LA just needs to hurry up and fall into the ocean already, we've been tormented for long enough.

In other news, the Celtics played smothering defense from wire to wire and raised their intensity level against a weaker team (something they have been struggling with since Christmas) and prevailed easily in a defensive contest. Kevin Garnett provided a spark early on, finishing with 16 points, 7 rebounds and 3 blocks in just 22 minutes, while Ray Allen had his jumper going throughout and lead the Celtics with 21 points on 9-14 shooting. With the exception of Ray Allen, every Celtic played limited minutes and got plenty of rest on the second night of a back-to-back (we barely saw KG or Pierce in the second half), and solid contributions from the entire bench helped the Celtics coast to victory. Boston did a great job of forcing turnovers, running shooters off the three point line, changing shots around the paint, and played Portland to a draw on the glass (at half time the Celtics were dominating the glass on both ends) to help themselves get a much needed victory on a tough West Coast road trip.

On the other side of things, the Blazers definitely played hard and competed with intensity but fell short because of Boston's defensive effort. Portland had only three players (Bayless, Aldridge and Andre Miller) in double figures, and despite a 40-23 free-throw advantage couldn't keep the game close for most of the night. The Blazers got killed by their own poor shooting (less than 34% overall and only 2-12 from distance), turnovers (they had 18 which lead to 20 points for Boston), and by giving up 44 points in the paint to a team of jump shooters. The intensity and effort was there, but the execution for the most part was non existent.

Perhaps the Blazers struggled a little bit to adjust to life without Steve Blake and to integrate Marcus Camby into the team (Camby was on and off, grabbing rebounds, changing shots and doing some little things well but also turning the ball over 5 times in 29 minutes), but really the Celtics perimeter defenders played extra hard and moved well, forcing tough shots that were out of the Blazers' comfort zone. Rudy, Roy and Martell Webster all struggled to find breathing room out there, which put too much of the burden onto LaMarcus Aldridge (who actually played a solid game with a 16/9) to keep things close. Mostly, I feel like the Celtics just played very hard, determined defense against these Blazers and took them out of their game, which proved to be the difference.

In the past, the Celtics have underestimated Portland and taken a lax attitude towards this Blazer team, however after losing in Portland last year, you could see that the Celtics had a totally different mindset on Friday night. While it's frustrating for Portland to lose, it is a huge sign of respect from the Celtics to be so attuned and focused on this game. In the long run, the Blazers will be ok and just need to learn from this experience to see what it takes to separate themselves from just about everyone else out West. Fortunately, the Blazers get to play the Nets on Tuesday, so a bounce back win should be coming right up. Until then, take it easy and remember that Laker fans suck!

Reenforced by Minutemen

I'm not even going to pretend like I am breaking the news hear or that you hadn't already heard that the Blazers traded Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw to the Clippers for Marcus Camby, so let's cut straight to the chase: this is a home run for Portland and Blazer fans should be smiling right now. Yes, it hurts to lose Steve Blake and Outlaw, two extremely hard workers and likable guys, however this deal was the best possible scenario for the Blazers and could potentially catapult them from out of the running to right there in the mix with anyone in the NBA.

And it's not that a soon to be 36 year-old Marcus Camby is the second coming of Bill Russell and that this Blazer team is now the favorite to win it all in the NBA, but of all the players available, Camby clearly fills the Blazers' needs and the asking price was relatively low. And I love both Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw as much as anyone, but their production and value to this team is replaceable, while Camby will plug many if not all of the holes that have had the Blazers struggling so mightily this year (well, he's not a doctor who can heal season ending injuries or someone who can go back in time and select Durant over Oden, but bear with me for a minute).

If I made a list of all the things that Portland was lacking this year, rebounding, shot blocking, front-court depth, help defense, size and length would be at the top of the list. Marcus Camby is extremely tall and long (check and check, even though he is skinny as hell), provides exceptional help defense (check), is currently second in the NBA in rebounding (check) and averages just under 2 blocks a game (check, and I would add that his career average is 2.59 and he has compiled 2,093 blocks in his career, good for 13th all time). Adding Marcus Camby to Portland's roster solves all of these problems.

Since front-court depth was the Blazers' most glaring weakness (and the root of all their other problems), let's start our analysis there. With Camby starting and playing the big minutes, Juwan Howard can stop killing himself every night and go back to the second unit where he and everyone else will be more comfortable. Howard is more likely to hold up this way because of reduced minutes and more favorable match-ups, and the second unit players will benefit greatly from the calm, focus and consistency that he delivers. As a consequence, Jeff Pendergraph and Dante Cunningham will feel less pressure and won't have to play out of position, so this can only be seen as an incredible positive for all of them (though I suppose there is something to be said for developing rookies by giving them meaningful minutes).

As for Portland's length and shot blocking issues, Camby will help immensely here as well. Although Camby is not a totally complete defender, he does provide excellent help defense (sometimes to a fault) and likes to patrol the rim and changes the way opponents attack the paint. Until now, if you pounded the Blazers in the paint they had very little recourse and no way to intimidate opponents or contest and alter shots effectively. None of the healthy Blazer big men were shot blockers, and all of them but Aldridge lack the length necessary to bother elite low post players or the best slashing guards and wings. Add Camby tothe mix and all this changes. Now when one of the Blazers gets beat on the perimeter, the opposing player still has something to think about other than how easy it is to score at the rim against such a woefully undersized team. And when Pau Gasol posts up down low, instead of being able to look over Juwan Howard or Jeff Pendergraph and realize that nobody on the court can affect his shot, he'll either be faced with the length of Camby immediately or soon after he drives toward the rim.

And even though Portland ranks first in opponents' rebounds per game (a paltry 38, tied with Cleveland) and are an outstanding 6th in rebound differential this year, they desperately need help on the glass. Right now, Portland has to gang rebound to control the glass, and this takes a toll on the smaller Blazers, who are often left to box out a bigger man. Adding a solid, reliable rebounder like Camby will reduce the stress on the other Blazers and should also help Portland's overall defense and transition game in the process. And Camby has only gotten better at rebounding with age, so any concerns about that area of the game should be squelched immediately.

Admittedly, this is the sunny evaluation of Camby, and it's focused more on the things he does well than the opposite at this point, but here is my thinking on the matter. In Portland's system, with a collection of solid to good defenders around him, Camby's strengths can shine and his weaknesses will be obscured. Similarly, I feel like he's the kind of player that can make everyone else better at the same time, so this trade could stand to benefit Portland greatly. The advanced stats support Camby as an excellent defensive player, and while his detractors point to things like poor screen/roll defense and his unwillingness to leave the basket area, the thing that matters more to me than anything is this: Marcus Camby made the Allen Iverson/Carmelo Anthony Nuggets a solid defensive team and raised everyone else's game on that team when the Nuggets played defense. Before this Denver renaissance that got them to the West Finals last year, Camby was the only thing preventing opponents from having a lay-up line against that team. Without Camby, that Nuggets squad would have been worse than Phoenix, Golden State or anyone else for that matter. He anchored that team and was instrumental to their success as a group, 'nuff said.

And what is the cost of this rental? The biggest loss is Steve Blake, who despite a recent shooting slump had been the Blazers' most consistent shooter and did everything the right way to help his team win. Blake plays defense, he hustles, he moves without the ball, he can shoot, and he doesn't take risks with the basketball, but at the end of the day Andre Miller is the better player both for this Blazers squad and in general. And with a creator like Roy at the other guard and guys like Jerryd Bayless and Rudy Fernandez in the mix as well, it shouldn't be too hard to replace Blake's production in the rotation.

As for Travis Outlaw, I will surely miss him and the energy he brought to the Blazers, but he truly was a confounding player and is very expendable. Even though he is still young, freakishly athletic and had become quite a good shooter recently, Travis Outlaw is not the most aware player and I always felt like his ceiling as a player was much lower than other people thought. The only thing he did really consistently was subject himself and all of us to the most painful brain farts and provoke more "what ifs?" than almost any other current Blazer. Watching him play, I was always impressed by his speed and athleticism, but confounded by his inability to convert easy baskets and finish in traffic. Yes, his pull up jumper was untouchable and even won a few games for the Blazers, but at the same time he made far too many easy shots incredibly difficult by painting himself into a corner and having only one move to get free.

And for a guy who stands 6'9," Outlaw was never a force on the glass nor an impact player on defense. I hate to see him go, but I get the feeling like ten years from now we could easily be asking the same questions about Travis that we are today. Plus, with a logjam at forward, he really has become expendable for the Blazers, who have younger and cheaper options to fill his void. Nicolas Batum has a better body (if that were possible) and does all the little things that Travis would never be able to do, and yet he can still stretch the defense and find ways to score even without having plays run for him.

The only part of this trade that gives me pause is the question of where and how far this gets Portland this year. Camby's contract expires after this year, and Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla will be back next year, so we must weigh this trade on what it does for Portland now. Yes it fills all of the holes in the Portland roster and yes it will help to cover many of the "warts" that these Blazers have, but does this piece put Portland over the top this year? Maybe there's a 0.5% chance that it does, but in all likelihood the Blazers are not getting to the promised land with this Marcus Camby deal. At this point they're in the playoffs and could make serious noise if Brandon Roy and everyone else ends up healthy, happy and firing on all cylinders, but man those are some big ifs.

What is realistic is to assume that Portland can and will make the playoffs, and depending on who they play win a series. But at this point I don't see the Blazers getting too much farther than that against a loaded Western Conference, nor do I see them stacking up against the elite teams in the East. So this deal can salvage this season and keep hope alive, but I don't think it puts the Blazers over the top and means that they can hang with the Lakers or Denver. Only time on the court will tell, so we'll just have to watch the games and see for ourselves.

Half Right is Better Than All Wrong

What a difference a total lack of defense makes, eh? After getting waxed by the Artists Formerly Known as Seattle on Tuesday, the Blazers did a little bit of waxing themselves against Phoenix last night. As I predicted, Portland fared much better against the run-and-gun Suns than they did against the Thunder, despite the fact that they were on the road and facing a more experienced and offensively explosive team in Phoenix than they did on Tuesday against the Thunder. It seemed like the Blazers were due for a strong response after getting so thoroughly embarrassed, and although I have no doubt that this was the case (along with the inspiration they got after Juwan Howard laid into them on Tuesday night), you can really chalk this victory up to a complete lack of defensive pressure from the Suns.

From the opening tip, the Blazers got just about everywhere they wanted to go and met little resistance from Phoenix en route to an impressive 108-101 victory that saw Portland ahead by almost 20 at one point. In addition to getting where they wanted to go with ease, Portland got plenty of good shots that they were able to knock down thanks again to a lack of pressure from Phoenix. With six players in double figures, the Blazers rode a balanced attack past the Suns and are now headed into the All-Star break on a positive note.

And as I postulated yesterday, the match-ups were more favorable for Portland and proved to be the difference last night. On Tuesday night, the Thunder hounded LaMarcus Aldridge and prevented him from getting the ball in his comfortable shots (or at all) and took him out of the game for long stretches. Against Phoenix last night, Aldridge repeatedly caught uncontested entry passes and was able to get into the paint with little resistance time and again. The result was a scalding hot shooting performance from the only LA we like in Portland, as he finished 11-17 from the field for a team high 22 points. Amar'e Stoudemire and Channing Frye were conscientious objectors for most of the game and paid the price for letting Aldridge establish a rhythm early on. Once LA sank a few jump hooks, the jumper started falling from all over and that was pretty much all she wrote for Phoenix.

The other match-ups I liked going into last night's game were in the backcourt, where the Blazers were able to exploit Steve Nash (and the other Phoenix defenders) all night long. Benefitting greatly from a lack of ball pressure, the Blazer guards were able to initiate their offense without impediment and established a good rhythm in the first quarter. Dribble penetration wasn't met with so many help defenders last night, and so both Andre Miller and Steve Blake were allowed to cut the Suns to ribbons by either scoring or dishing to an open teammate. Both players finished with 20 points and thoroughly outplayed the Phoenix guards on both ends of the floor.

While we're on the subject of Blazer guards, I'd like to highlight a great decision by coach McMillan: starting Steve Blake. Blake was the player of the game, pouring in 20 points and dishing out 12 assists with only one turnover. After the Blazers killed themselves with turnovers against the Thunder, McMillan inserted Blake to keep the Blazers under control and to take care of the ball, two of his specialties. Blake was aggressive early on and rose to the challenge of playing against Steve Nash admirably. When the Suns played Blake to pass, he made them pay by knocking down shots and did the opposite once they started playing him to score. Add in good defense on the other end and Blake was easily the difference between a humiliating loss to OKC and an impressive victory over Phoenix.

While it was a good win for the Blazers (they all are, aren't they?), I feel like this game said more about Phoenix than it did about Portland. It seems to me that Phoenix has only one way to win and are ill-equipped to compete in a game where their shots aren't falling and they don't establish a huge lead early on. Since they really play no defense at all, they have no recourse if they can't suck you into their style of game. In any sport, the best way to beat an opponent is to make them do things that they're uncomfortable with. To be really successful, you need more than one way to do that, and it is plain to see that Phoneix lacks this kind of balance.

The Suns way of forcing people out of their comfort zone is to outscore you and force you to play their style to try and catch up, which works great as long as Phoenix can score points and you actually fall for their trap (so many teams do). But if their shots don't fall and they can't force you to start playing from behind early on, what can they do? Most teams would use defensive effort and energy to take away your offensive sets, but the Suns can't or won't do that so they are really up a creek, especially against other elite teams that thrive on the kind of balance they lack.

Does Phoneix need to become the best defensive team in the league in order to be more successful? No, but they do need to be willing to at least make some kind of effort to keep their opponents from getting the shots they like to take. There's really no reason that a team that talented should lose to a Portland squad like this one that is so decimated by injuries (especially at home), but they have no recourse if their shots don't fall. And it's a freaking shame, because Phoenix is great to watch and Steve Nash is one of the most likable guys in the Association today. So it goes.

Check back after the All-Star break for more world class content (or not...).

Everything Turn, Turn, Turn (overs)

Well, consider me 0 for 1 as a Blazer Blogger thus far. I thought that rebounding was the crucial element of last night's game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and I was wrong. The Blazers actually grabbed more rebounds than the Thunder did last night and control of the glass was not the deciding factor in last night's contest. No, what killed Portland last night was something quite uncharacteristic for this Portland team and their system: turnovers.

If you watched the game last night, it was plain to see that the Blazers inability to take care of the basketball killed them repeatedly (a few times I thought I was watching the Celtics play, yeesh). Currently 26th in the NBA in turnovers per game, the Blazers coughed up the rock 24 times, leading to 30 points for Kevin Durant & co. That's the ballgame right there, folks, and you can thank some surprisingly stifling defense from the Thunder for making that happen. OKC is a long and athletic squad, and they swarmed the Blazers mercilessly and took Portland right out of their game from the get go. Andre Miller and others were routinely met by two, three and sometimes even four bodies when they got into the paint, and the Thunder did a great job of cutting off passing lanes and running shooters off of shots on the perimeter when the Blazers were able to kick the ball out to the perimeter.

Now, Portland missed plenty of looks that might normally go down, but explaining the loss that way would be selling the defensive effort of the Thunder and the progress they've made this year woefully short. I am a firm believer that basketball is a game of rhythm, and taking a team out of that rhythm makes good shooters miss open shots after long enough. That's what happened to Portland last night, and on the other side of things, the Blazers just didn't have an answer for the length, athleticism and overall game of Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and the rest of the Thunder.

Not that I'm in the business of letting the Blazers off the hook, but they just got outplayed by a healthier team that right now is more talented than Portland and has been giving even the top squads in the NBA boatloads of problems this year. The Thunder are vastly improved on both ends of the floor and seem poised to make some noise down the stretch of this season. And although Kevin Durant was fantastic again (33/11), the Thunder are more than just him, and they proved it last night. Jeff Green did the little things (including mediating a shouting match between Durant and Russell Westbrook in the second half), played great defense on LaMarcus Aldridge (he only got 10 shots all night and had 4 turnovers), and rookie James Harden hit some big shots just as Portland was attempting to close the gap in the second half.

Looking ahead to tonight's game against Phoenix, the Blazers should have an easier time running their offense, which can hopefully translate to more makes and a Portland victory. Phoenix plays no defense at all and don't rebound particularly well, so they don't seem well equipped to exploit Portland. That doesn't mean they aren't a threat, the Suns have been playing fantastically and have as much offensive firepower as anyone in the Association. Still, I like the Blazers to go get a win tonight, partially because of a few match-ups but also because they got embarrassed on their home floor last night and most NBA teams respond well after a loss like that.

The caveats, however, are as follows. First, this is the second of a back-to-back for the Blazers, and they had to travel to Phoenix after the game last night, so fatigue could be an issue against a team that runs and guns as much as the Suns do. Also, life will be difficult for Portland if Martell Webster can't go at all or is limited in his ability to impact the game. His nasty fall last night visibly affected his game on both ends and the Blazers desperately need him to have a chance at success tonight and for the rest of the season. Also, there is potential for a Channing Frye revenge game, as the Suns new sixth man may be keyed up and determined to show Portland what he can do in a system that isn't as restrictive as Nate McMillan's is.

on the flip side, I actually like the match-ups for Portland a lot more in this game than I did against the Thunder. Andre Miller should be able to post up Steve Nash all night long and exploit his defensive deficiencies easily (not possible against the physical specimen that isRussell Westbrook), and if they take Nash off of Miller Captain Canada will have to try and contain Jerryd Bayless, who shreds the NBA's quickest perimeter defenders off the dribble on a nightly basis. And while we're on the subject of Bayless, I like the potential of him against Leandro Barbosa. On the interior, LaMarcus Aldridge should have an easier go of things against Channing Frye and Amar'e Stoudemire, both of whom have never been accused of playing a lick of D in their respective NBA careers.

Still, this game is a toss up at best and the Blazers, as they have had to do all season, will have to find a way to win and compensate for the talent and health differential. If shots fall for Portland tonight, they should win (there's my push for the John Madden Memorial Captain Obvious Award), otherwise things could get ugly once again. Win or lose, the All-Star break is coming and on the other side of it hopefully lies a healthy Brandon Roy, so let's try and hang on one more time and gut out another impressive win.

Preparing for a Thunderstorm

When two divisional rivals square off in the NBA, oftentimes the best way to find the "key to victory" is to rely on data from previous contests and learn from those match-ups.  Tonight's game between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Artists Formerly Known as the Seattle Super Sonics, however, is the exception to the rule.  

Way back on November 1st when the Blazers beat the Thunder 83-74 in a game that can only be described as Moe Sizlack ugly these were two completely different teams.  With the exception of Nicolas Batum, Travis Outlaw and Jeff Pendergraph, Portland was at full strength and featured a starting five of Steve Blake, Brandon Roy, Martell Webster, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden.  These days, Portland's M.A.S.H. unit features only two of those starters (Aldridge and Webster) as the banged up Blazers seek to deal with the harsh and unforgiving rigors of an 82-game NBA schedule.  A significant size, strength and rebounding edge (that helped Portland win the first brutal slugfest) has vanished into thin air, as Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla have been replaced in the middle by Juwan Howard, Dante Cunningham and Jeff Pendergraph, none of whom stand much taller than 6'8".  And if that weren't enough, the Blazers crunch time scoring and best player are in street clothes until after the All-Star break.

Oklahoma City, on the other hand, has largely the same roster they did on November 1st, however they are playing like a completely different team these days.  Particularly, Kevin Durant has been scorching hot lately and is just one tenth of a point behind LeBron James for the league lead in scoring.  Durant had an incredible January, averaging over 32 points and 8 rebounds per contest and scoring with a ruthless efficiency reminiscent of the Spanish Inquisition.  I'm actually surprised Durant hasn't burned a hole through the parquet floor lately, he's shooting almost 52% from the field over all, 53% from 3-point distance and almost 90% from the line.  In short, don't expect him to put up a 3-20 stink bomb this time around. 

Admittedly, things seem pretty grim for Portland going into this game.  The Blazers are missing their best player and go-to scorer, while OKC's best player is turning in the best stretch of basketball in his entire life.  If there is a silver lining to this gloomy cloud, it's that the Thunder don't have an exceptional amount of size to punish the Blazers with on the interior.  Their tallest player is Nenad Kristic, who tends to favor a mid-range jumper over doing the dirty work down on the block.  Beyond Kristic, the Thunder's next tallest player may actually be Durant (though Nick Collison is their reserve big man), so it's fair to say that they don't exactly have a dominating low post presence to pound the rock inside and punish the Blazers for being small, so it would seem that the Thunder are ill-equipped to exploit one of the Blazers' biggest weaknesses.  

Appearances can be deceiving, however, so let's take a closer look.  Despite not having incredible size on their roster, the Thunder have good length and athleticism and rebound much better than their roster measurements suggest.  In fact, the Thunder are fifth in the NBA in total rebounds grabbed per game, while Portland ranks a dismal 27th (though I think you can safely blame their poor rebounding on the lack of centers on the roster).  Why does this matter?  Because the best way to beat the Blazers is to control the glass and rebound the hell out of the basketball.  This is THE way to beat Portland on any given night, and I am actually shocked that more teams aren't exploiting this weakness.

If the Thunder can control the backboards on both ends of the floor, they can do two things.  First of all, by controlling the defensive glass they can limit Portland to one shot and put pressure on the Blazers to make the best of their looks and generally limit opportunities to score.  Secondly, by hitting the offensive glass the Thunder can generate more possessions for themselves and get better scoring opportunities out of those possessions.  The larger the disparity in rebounds on both ends (and therefore the larger disparity in possessions) is, the more likely the Thunder are to win the game tonight. 

Now I don't know if there's an advanced stat out there that can tell us if a team is more likely to score after an offensive rebound, but to my eyes offensive rebounds generate points and create good looks for your team.  Think about it this way: not only does an offensive rebound give your team another possession, but it often gives your team an opportunity to score right at the rim (ever wonder how Dwight Howard gets his points with horrendous footwork and hands made of bricks?).  And even if an offensive rebound doesn't generate a lay-up attempt, it can also lead to an open perimeter shot for a teammate, as an opponent may have already leaked out for a transition opportunity or may be out of guarding position after trying to grab the rebounds themselves.  This happens all the time, a great example is the first possession for the Celtics from game 2 of the 2008 Finals, where Kendrick Perkins grabbed a miss and kicked it out to Paul Pierce for a wide open 3-pointer.  Perhaps this is confirmation bias on my part, but the simple fact remains that getting offensive rebounds gets you more shots than your opponent (this can't be a bad thing).

So controlling the glass against a team with no centers, a few undersized forwards (and a tall guy who should be a beast but only grabs 2 rebounds a quarter), and a glut of undersized guards, right?  Wrong, at least a little.  The Blazers have still managed to win lots of games by rebounding as a team and working extra hard.  Guys like Andre Miller, who is usually good for at least one crucial offensive rebound and follow up basket a game, or Martell Webster, who isn't known as a rebounder but is dedicating himself to that area of the game have been helping out.  In fact, the Blazers give up fewer rebounds than anyone in the NBA.  And while you might think that the Blazers give up fewer rebounds because their opponents shoot a decently good percentage from the field (the Blazers are 19th in the NBA in opponents' FG%), dig a little deeper and you realize that Portland is 6th in the Association in rebound differential, so I think it's still safe to say that the Blazers do better than they should on the glass. 

Still, the Blazers do get hammered underneath from time to time and many of the games they've lost this year have been because of that.  Fortunately, OKC's match-ups aren't as unfavorable as they might seem.  Durant is long, sure, but at least Nicolas Batum is back to contest him for stretches of the game.  If Portland plays hard tonight, they can win this game and probably should.  The Thunder are great this year and have been playing really well, but Portland's system gives them a shot every night.  I'm excited to see Durant & co. in action this year, check back after the game for more analysis.

Hi there.  If you’re reading this then you’ve either been bugged incessantly by yours truly to check me out or you’re a wayward soul in search of some high quality basketball dialogue and analysis.  In either case, welcome and please make yourself at home.  If the namesake of this site wasn’t clear enough, this is a place for professional basketball talk, specifically focusing on the Portland Trail Blazers.  Why the Blazers?  We’ll get to that in a minute, but first I should probably introduce myself and establish the lens through which we’ll view professional basketball and the Blazers on this site.

 

In the interest of full disclosure I’ll get this one out of the way first: I was born and raised in Newton, Massachusetts, a quiet bedroom community (think a slightly more populated Lake Oswego with more Jewish people) just a few miles west of Boston (I’ll pause now and let the inevitable chorus of boos and groans subside…).  Granted, I am not a native Oregonian, and I have been known to root for the Celtics, Red Sox and the Patriots.  But believe me when I tell you this: I am not, nor will I ever be the stereotypical Boston sports fan you’re probably envisioning right now.  Though I may be opinionated about almost everything and occasionally loud, I am not some ignorant, ill-tempered, foul mouthed (ok maybe I am a bit foul mouthed), idiot MASS-hole who will forcefully chant “Yankees Suck!” at any social function, be it baseball game, wedding, funeral or graduation.  Trust me, I hate that guy waaaaaaaaaaayyyyy more than you do, even if we do root for the same teams.

 

But if I’m not that guy, then who am I?  Like other Boston sports fans, I am passionate about sports and the teams that I follow.  I have high expectations of the players who take the field and I believe that as fans we owe it to our players and to each other to be intelligent, enlightened and passionate about the game.  Most of all, I like to see sports played at their absolute apex, regardless of who is playing.  That last bit was a long time coming; especially separating the players from the jerseys they wear.  At this point in my life, I can say with confidence that I can appreciate really good basketball in every form and in every color of jersey without too much bias (ok, maybe a little bit of bias still when it comes to the Lakers or Anderson Varejao).  I’d like to think that I still have the passion of a relentless homer, yet that side is well balanced by my appreciation for good basketball.  Thus, as a writer and a fan of the game, I feel comfortable telling you that my favorite player is Paul Pierce (though he may get passed by Rajon Rondo pretty quickly) and yet at the same time I can say that I believe LeBron James is the best player in the game (and no, that’s not solely because I personally witnessed him drop 41/10/8 without trying in Portland recently).  Even though LeBron and the Cavs are rivals of the Celtics, I can’t do anything but give respect to him and them for the way they play ball.

 

Because of my perspective, I get a great deal of joy out of watching the Portland Trail Blazers play basketball.  The Blazers play basketball the way it should be played, and the people that watch them understand this and appreciate this fact.  Even during a season where everything has gone wrong, the Blazers don’t make excuses, don’t quit and continue to play hard when many lesser teams would throw their hands up and say, “wait ‘til next year” (the Celtics are currently doing this even though their nucleus is past their prime).  In Portland, we know that’s what is coming, but it doesn’t matter one iota, the fans still expect a high level of play and the players are still striving for it.  This is just one of the many reasons that I have fallen in love with this city and this area of the country, but it has greatly influenced me and given me a greater appreciation for the Blazers and their fans.  This city loves professional basketball, and the players that play for the Blazers all seem to love the city back (and how could you not?). 

 

Maybe I’m drawn to Portland because I see a bit of Boston in this city.  The people are noticeably nicer and the two cities themselves have completely different auras and customs, but in the sports fans of both Portland and Boston, I see the same mentality and drive in the face of turmoil, doubt and disappointment that Kesey so beautifully captured in his epic novel Sometimes a Great Notion: “Never Give a Inch!”  Before Boston was spoiled by championship seasons from three of their major franchises (sad trombone for the Bruins), it was a desperately hungry city that defiantly believed their year was coming, even after endless mistakes, missed opportunities, freak occurrences and tragedies.  I see the same resolve in many Portland basketball fans that have weathered equally brutal if not greater storms in their rich history. 

 

So what do I hope to accomplish with this blog about professional basketball in the Rose City?  Some of my motives are admittedly self-serving (I want to improve as a writer, I need to express myself about basketball, etc.), but most of all I want to provide some thoughtful dialogue and analysis about the Blazers and hopefully get others thinking about the Blazers and the NBA as much as I do.  To that effect, I want to focus more on in-depth topics and the real meat of what basketball is all about rather than instantaneously regurgitating what happened in last night’s game.  Other people with more time and better press credentials can handle that; I’m after deeper and potentially more interesting stories and hope to provide quality analysis rather than quick analysis. 

 

Most importantly, however, I pledge to actively try and stem the tide of writers that hit the panic button after every loss and who seek to anoint players like Leon Powe as the next Moses Malone (sorry Tommy Heinsohn, but we all know that is ridiculous) just to attract readers and to fill their daily quota of material.  That kind of writing makes me sick to my stomach and I generally don’t see the point in doing those exercises, so that won’t be something that goes on here.  Does that mean I’m going to ignore problems and gloss over the team’s shortcomings or deficiencies?  No, it just means that when I do discuss these topics it will (hopefully) be from a rational point of view and will endeavor to avoid hyperbole at all costs. 

 

One more thing you probably won’t find too much of here is ridiculous predictions and postulations about future success or failure of any team or player.  This is another popular trend in sports writing that makes me sick, and it seems to me that people engage in this sort of activity simply to prove that they are right or smarter than the next person.  I don’t feel the need to do that and also I feel like it cheapens the collective narrative of professional basketball so I will do everything in my power to provide a different brand of analysis that is hopefully more thoughtful and enlightening and just as entertaining to my dedicated readers (if there are, in fact, any of you out there).   

 

Hopefully what I can provide is a balanced view of the Portland Trail Blazers that explores the games, players and possibilities for this team in a way that isn’t done anywhere else.  Because I am not a native Oregonian and am separated from the history and legacy of the Blazers somewhat, I feel like I can be an objective observer and see things that others cannot.  At the same time, because of my background and my understanding of what it means to be a member of a tortured fan base, I feel like I can still sympathize with my peers here in Portland and can understand the fan’s perspective on all of this which should hopefully allow the words that appear here to resonate with everyone who roots for the Blazers. 

 

Undoubtedly this will be a work in progress at times, and I will likely be the first one to point out my own mistakes and errors, but that doesn’t mean that commentary and dialogue on this site are unwelcome or unnecessary.  In fact, just the opposite is true.  My dream scenario involves this site becoming a forum for all basketball knowledge and a place where we can cultivate real dialogue that extends beyond me talking at the rest of the world about Portland basketball.  I’m not in this for money or publicity; I am doing this because on a very real level I have a deep need to express my ideas about basketball. The Blazers happen to be the most available source material and they happen to play a great style of ball that strikes at the heart of what this game is all about. 

 

With all that said I’d like to once again welcome you to the site and reassure you that although my roots lie elsewhere, I have a firm grasp of the Blazer history from Ramsay, Walton and Lucas to Adelman, Porter, Sabonis and Drexler and beyond.  So stay tuned for more regular analysis and commentary about the best team in the NBA that nobody knows about, your Portland Trail Blazers.